MSL is still on target for a 2009 launch, no matter what anybody says

Last week an article in Aviation Week inspired rampant speculation about the fate of the next Mars rover mission, MSL, which is scheduled to launch in 2009. The article suggested that after a NASA Headquarters review being held today, Friday October 10, 2008, that the schedule could be so tight that they'd delay until 2011, or that budget overruns could be so great that Congress could choose to cancel the mission.

In response to this speculation, NASA held a press briefing today after the meetings, and the main message was pretty brief: The plan for MSL's development is to "continue unabated toward launch in 2009," said Doug McCuistion, director of the Mars Exploration Program. Despite ongoing budget and schedule "challenges," they seem to have reasonable confidence that they can meet the target launch date. So that's good news.

However, regardless of whether MSL sticks to its 2009 launch date or delays to 2011, it's going to cost more money. Originally budgeted at $1.6 billion, the cost has ballooned to $1.9 billion, and rumors suggest that JPL will need another $100 to $200 million on top of that to bring MSL to launch. A launch delay would cost another $300 million. However, the NASA officials would not go on record to state any of these numbers. McCuistion said, in response to repeated pressure from the members of the press, "We can't say where the money is going to come from yet because we haven't fully resolved that yet. We have to work this with the Office of Management and Budget and Capitol Hill before we finalize that." And, of course, until they officially say how much it's going to cost, they can't officially say where the money is going to come from: "Until we finalize that we can't discuss the sources."

Associate Administrator Ed Weiler did say this about where the money would come from: "We'll work within the Mars program first. If we can't find enough money there, the planetary program next. But before blindly canceling or delaying [missions], we look at other opportunities." For instance, he said, some missions don't spend all their money in a given year, carrying some over until next year; MSL could gobble that up. "There are certain accounting things you can do which can minimize the impact to missions. Not knowing the exact number [that MSL will need], I don't know if we can avoid hits to other missions, but that would be my first goal. As far as continuing the mission, Congress has always been very supportive. I can't tell you how many times Hubble ran into problems. If we made the easy decision to cancel, we'd've never launched Hubble, never launched Cassini, and a few others. MSL is a flagship mission in the Mars program, and as long as we think we have a good chance to make it we're going to do what we have to do."

More at www.planetary.org