What Future for NASA?

America's space agency faces uncertain future on its 50th anniversary.

by LEE BILLINGS • Posted October 1, 2008 01:16 PM

On July 29, 1958, President Eisenhower signed the National Aeronautics and Space Act, authorizing the creation of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and establishing its mission to undertake space science and exploration "for the benefit of all mankind." NASA began operations some three months later, on October 1. Eleven years afterward, fulfilling a vision laid out by President Kennedy, men walked on the Moon, their actions destined to resonate through the remainder of human history.

Though they only encompassed four of the agency's 50 years, the remembered glory of the lunar landings still overshadows all other subsequent NASA accomplishments. But Apollo ingloriously failed in one key way: It was not sustained, perhaps not sustainable. Apollo was planned and executed at breakneck speed; the goal was to reach the Moon as quickly as possible, not to develop a lasting ability to go there. The space race was the product of a unique sociopolitical situation: a post-war nation arguably near the peak of its hegemonic, economic, and industrial powers indulging in a noble substitution for warfare with its sole global competitor, the USSR. When Apollo succeeded, when the "battle" was "won," Americans lost interest, politicians slashed funding, and a window of opportunity for humanity to advance outward and lay claim to the rest of our solar system closed. Mission accomplished.

Consequently, on its 50th anniversary NASA is unable to send astronauts beyond low- Earth orbit, and thanks to the impending retirement of the Space Shuttle, faces a looming gap of at least five years during which it won't even be able to do that. The remaining Saturn V moon rockets, each a marvel of engineering unmatched even today, languish as mere tourist attractions on the lawns of NASA centers around the country. Instead of celebrating successful human missions out to Mars, the asteroids, and even further, the agency finds itself scrambling to simply get back to the Moon by 2020.

NASA on the Blogs

Science bloggers are largely pessimistic about the financial future of NASA, especially its science programs. NASA's 2008 research budget for physical science totaled $5.5 billion, which, as Sean Carroll charts so clearly, pales in comparison to the $14.9 billion spent on Iraq reconstruction costs or the $1 trillion estimated total cost of the war.

Because funds are so tight, several operating missions are closing shop. Steinn Sigurdsson gives the complete run-down of slashed programs and those in danger, including the relativity gyroscope experiment, Gravity Probe-B, and the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer, which is expected to close down in February 2009.

In June, the Senate Appropriations Committee released the bill for 2009 NASA funding, which focused on the Bush Administration's manned space exploration agenda rather than science. Funding for science programs decreased by 3.9%, or $183 million, whereas funds for exploration increased by 12.3%, or $387 million. Michael Stebbins posts the complete report. The bill is still pending in the Senate.

NASA budgets in 2010 and beyond will depend in some part on who takes the White House on November 4. Last November, Obama said that he would cut much of the NASA Constellation Program for five years in order to pay for his education plan; five months later, John McCain announced a plan to freeze NASA's 2010 budget at 2009 levels. But now both have come around a bit. In August, Obama recanted his plans for Constellation cuts and the Planetary Society released pro-space policy statements from both candidates. Unlike in the good old days, when nearly four percent of the US federal budget went to a single-minded, Moon-focused space program, today the agency is being asked to accomplish more with fewer resources: Less than one cent of every tax dollar supports the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS), the awe-inspiring discoveries of Hubble Space Telescope and other orbital observatories, the wildly successful robotic armada exploring our the solar system, and the ongoing study of our own planet from space. To accomplish all this while also returning Americans to the Moon, NASA has resorted to extreme measures, cannibalizing many of its lesser-known programs. Research projects that promised major scientific discoveries have been curtailed or cancelled. New propulsion technologies that would enable a wide variety of breakthrough space missions have been neglected. The fundamental problem of exceedingly high launch costs remains unaddressed.

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